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The difference between pain and damage

Interesting note from UBS highlighting that there is a significant difference between pain and long term damage. It also notes that while it is important to manage short term risks they should always be considered alongside the opportunity cost of taking too little risk.

Click here to read.

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How to prepare for the next bear market

From the UBS Chief Investment Office is a look at bear markets, how to recognise them and how to protect against them.

“Are we in a bear market? Not yet. While 2018 saw a 19.8% peak-to-trough drop in US large-cap stocks (S&P 500), this was just a run-of-the-mill bull market correction, not the beginning of a bear market. We expect the current economic expansion and equity bull market to continue for some time but, even so, you should not wait until the next downturn is imminent to take commonsense steps to plan for a bear market.

By studying bear markets closely, you will learn that they aren’t as dangerous as they seem. Cutting through the many misconceptions, our goal is to help you lay the foundation for protecting yourself against market downturns. In three parts below, we explain why bear markets need not threaten financial success, and how they can be an opportunity to improve long-term returns for those who are prepared.”

For more see here 

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UBS: Turning Points : Year Ahead 2019

From UBS Chief Investment Office have published their annual look at the year ahead. It delves into a look at the uncertainties and vulnerabilities that are present late in the investment cycle. It also looks at the importance of the Liquidity, longevity and Legacy approach to managing wealth.

Well worth a read for a global perspective on the investment environment and what is ahead for 2019.

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UBS: Year Ahead 2018

From UBS Chief Investment Office have published their annual look at the year ahead. It delves into three main areas:

  • Changing Context: They expect another year of respectable economic growth, higher corporate profits, and rising equity markets. But investors will need to adapt to the changing monetary, political, technological, social, and environmental context.
  • Top Risks: Although they expect the rally in equities to continue, they see the three most prominent threats as: a significant rise in interest rates, a geopolitical conflict, and a China debt crisis.
  • Dealing with Change: To protect and grow wealth in a period of accelerated change, investors will need to demonstrate a combination of agility, balance, and calm, in their view.

Well worth a read for a global perspective on the investment environment and what is ahead for 2018.

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How UBS Tore Down a Car – and Rebuilt Its Research Practice

UBS was recognised as the world’s best equity research provider in Institutional Investor’s annual ranking of the top global research companies, thanks in part to its innovative Evidence Lab that does primary research such as buying an electric car and breaking it down. It is a good thing that they are one of our primary research partners.

To read full article Click Here or on image below:

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Goldman Warns That Market Valuations Are at Their Highest Since 1900

  • Returns likely to be lower across all assets in medium term
  • Risk scenario sees inflation jump that ushers ‘fast pain’

A prolonged bull market across stocks, bonds and credit has left a measure of average valuation at the highest since 1900, a condition that at some point is going to translate into pain for investors, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

To see full Bloomberg article and watch video click here or on the image below.

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Video: Strategy Snapshot

Please join Bernard Doyle, JBWere New Zealand Investment Strategist, as he discusses key areas under watch this week. Well worth a watch, click here or on the image below.

 

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2018 global economic outlook: As Good As It Gets

For the first time since 2010, the world economy is outperforming most predictions — a trend that Goldman Sachs Research economists Jan Hatzius and Jari Stehn see not only continuing but amplifying in 2018.

Their global outlook (available below) predicts 4% GDP growth next year, a forecast notably above consensus expectations and supported by still-easy financial conditions and fiscal policy. Stubbornly low core inflation should also tick up in advanced economies as their labor markets continue to strengthen and the drag from low commodity and import prices unwinds. They look for the Fed to lean against this strength by tightening considerably more than what’s priced by the market, attempting to prevent a bigger economic overheating and recession down the road. Click here to read abridged report.

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Video : Market Update : Stuck in First

Join Bernard Doyle, Head of Strategy at JBWere, as he looks at the risks and opportunities out there at present in the world of investment, moving through US, Europe and China before coming home to New Zealand. Good summary of the key areas of risk that we have our eye on at present. Well worth a watch, click here or on the image below.

 

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UBS Video Series : Nobel Perspectives

UBS have tapped some of the brightest people on earth, Nobel Laureates in Economic Sciences, to get their views on some of the big questions facing humanity and the global economy. Some fascinating insights and well worth a watch here.

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Source: UBS

 

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Foreign Ownership Survey – New Zealand 2016

JBWere Research  |  06th December 2016

Offshore ownership hits a five year high.

This year, our survey covered 70 companies, accounting for 96% of the S&P/NZX All index.  In a relative sense, we note that the level of foreign ownership in NZ remains relatively high compared with many of our developed-market peers.

Foreign ownership of the New Zealand equity market increased to 36.3% from 32.6% in 2015. This is the highest level since 2011.

  • NZ retail investment experienced the largest drop of the year, falling to 23% from 27%. Portfolio-style investment also fell. However, we observed an increase in
    strategic stake holdings.
  • The Initial Public Offering (IPO) run-rate remains subdued, with just three IPOs in 2016. That said, some further new listings resulting from separations of existing
    assets shows corporate activity remains alive and well in New Zealand.
  • New Zealand equity market capitalisation currently sits at 41% of GDP, the highest level since 2000. This is still low by international standards, but represents an
    increase from 2015 (37%).
  • New Zealand’s relatively high-yielding equity market has been a key beneficiary of the global ‘hunt for yield’ in recent years, which has driven the level of offshore
    ownership to its current level. Ironically, however, just as interest in our equity market has hit a multi-year high, it appears this underlying thematic is beginning to
    shift, with central bank stimulatory policies diminishing and more appealing yield alternatives for international investors emerging.

Please click here to view the full survey.

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UBS House View – Year Ahead 2017

ubs-house-viewSource: UBS

UBS has released its house view on 2017 . Predictions are always very hard to make (Brexit and Trump?!) so must be taken as only that and not certainties but it is always interesting to have a look at investing from a longer term perspective than what is in the news everyday. Some of the areas covered in the report are:

  • The end game? Politics and policy have played a huge role in financial markets in recent years. It will be no different in 2017. Learn more about the impact of policy on markets and see why UBS believes global diversification is so critical in today’s polarized political world.
  • Pressing questions: See UBS’s responses to the pressing questions their clients have been asking as they approach the end of the year. Find out what a Trump presidency will mean for markets, how investors can prepare for the 28+ risks we face in 2017, where investors can find return in today’s low-yield world, and more.
  • US and EM ideas in focus: US equities, US senior loans, and US inflation-protected securities are among UBS’s top ideas. They also believe emerging market growth can endure in 2017, and highlight opportunities in EM equities and an EM currency basket.
  • New ways of finding return: The search for yield will continue in 2017: risk-free interest rates will be below the rate of inflation in much of the financial world. Investors looking for more effective portfolios will need to consider diversifying into hedge funds, investing in illiquid assets, and benefiting from alternative investment return factors.
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Video : Strategy Update : Four Horsemen

Bernard Doyle, JBWere’s NZ Strategist, presents his views on the four major risks in markets at the moment in light of the recent market sell-off and subsequent rebound.  Well worth a watch.

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New Foreign Exchange Partner : NZForex

NZForex_100x60_blue

Many of our clients are simply unaware of the high margins and fees that are often applied by the banks for international transfers. This has prompted Aspiring Wealth Management to enter into a referral partner arrangement with NZForex. The difference in exchange rates can often mean savings of thousands, or even tens of thousands of dollars (depending on volumes being sent). NZForex also provides hedging tools to assist you in managing the volatility of the foreign exchange markets.

NZForex has waived the transfer fee for transactions over $250 NZD, for our clients.

If you are remitting funds to or from New Zealand then NZForex can help.

NZForex is a wholly owned subsidiary of OzForex Group Limited which is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: OFX) priding itself on being a smarter, online alternative to other deliverable foreign exchange services. Focusing on providing both consumer and business clients with a better deal, the group has been operating since 1998 and completed 703,000 transfers and in excess of $18 Billion NZD last year. NZForex, UKForex, USForex, Canadian Forex, Tranzfers and OzForex are all part of the OzForex Group.

By using NZForex, you will enjoy;

  • Zero transaction fees (for payments above $250 NZD)
  • Extremely competitive foreign exchange rates across 52 currencies
  • Online access 24/7
  • Access to a dedicated Dealer by phone 24-hours a day, 5 days a week
  • Complete exchange rate transparency
  • Exchange rate alerts via email
  • Access to their highly regarded daily and weekly “Market Commentary”

Why not take advantage of the free, no obligation registration process-just to see how much you can save?

To receive the agreed benefits for Aspiring Wealth Management you must Register Free Here mention “Aspiring” during the registration process for FEE FREE transfers.

Shortly after registering with NZForex you will be contacted by their dealing desk to assist with your requirements. For immediate assistance please call NZForex dealing desk on 0800 161 868 from NZ or +61 2 8667 8090 internationally.

Check out this video below to learn more about NZForex

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Aspiring Conversations 2016

The Festival of Colour, Wanaka’s fantastic bi-annual arts festival, has a sister event every second year the main festival is not on called Aspiring Conversations. This a is “festival of ideas” that has panel discussions on topics ranging from innovation to climate change to identity. The programme was released last night and includes “Leading climatologists and science writers Tim Flannery, Suzi Kerr and Veronica Meduna, 2010 New Zealander of the Year Sir Ray Avery, Kiwiblog editor David Farrar, Rhodes Scholar Max Harris, and Patricia Grace, one of the country’s major authors, among the notable speakers, thinkers and writers appearing.”

We are proud to help support this fantastic event as local business sponsor and encourage everyone to make it along to what is a very thought provoking and fascinating couple of days. Go to www.festivalofcolour.co.nz/aspiring-conversations/

aspiring conversations

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